This article was originally published on English language
Despite the rapid growth of the EU banking sector this year, banks may face problems in the future. Much depends on whether the new EU leadership will support the course of building a banking union. The issue of deposit insurance is still not resolved.
Major European banks are showing confident growth thanks to increased deal-making and high income from investment banking. The Euro Stoxx Banking Index (SX7E) is up 19%, while the Euro Stoxx 600 (SXXP) is up nearly 9% this year.
The main reason for warming up the sector was the profit of large banks, which exceeded expectations in the first quarter. However, the upcoming European elections cast further optimistic forecasts into doubt. The EU banking sector will have to solve a number of global challenges, and it is very important who exactly will be at the helm of Greater Europe.
Doesn’t everyone need general insurance?
On the to-do list is the completion of the work on the creation of a pan-European deposit insurance fund. This measure was a response to the growing risks for the banking system after the crisis in the regional banks of the USA and Credit Suisse.
Talks about deposit insurance at the EU level did not start yesterday. We remind you that the member states recognized the need to create a banking union in the EU after the global financial crisis of 2008 – in order to increase the stability and integrity of the banking system in Europe and especially in the Eurozone. A single system of deposit insurance has been proposed as one of the three pillars of the union under construction. In addition to it, the trio also included the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and the Single Settlement Mechanism (SRM). When the last two measures were implemented in 2013 and 2014, the Unified Deposit Insurance System faced obstacles. It has met resistance from member states and banking lobbies, who fear the initiative will reduce the incentives for banks on the ground to manage risks wisely because they will become more reliant on the collective insurance system.
This thesis is shared by the far-right, which is traditionally critical of pan-European mechanisms; they are expected to do well in the elections.
Progress report
Meanwhile, major EU banks report positive results in the first quarter. According to a Bloomberg report, 71% of banks exceeded market expectations for earnings.
Spanish institutions were particularly strong, benefiting from higher interest rates, which allowed for increased lending income. Over the past decade, the country’s banks have also managed to increase efficiency by reducing staff and branches. As a result, in the first three months of this year, the income of the largest bank in Spain, Banco Santander, increased by 10% compared to the same period last year. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA reported a 18% increase in gross revenue during the same quarter. Both institutes said they are on track with their 2024 plans, and their shares are up 22% and 14% year-to-date, respectively. Santander has overtaken France’s BNP Paribas in terms of market valuation, reclaiming the crown of the biggest bank in the EU.
Other major banks, including Italy’s largest Intesa Sanpaolo, also reported an 18% increase in net profit compared to last year, driven by higher commissions from the asset management and insurance divisions. Intesa shares rose 32% in 2024. Germany’s Deutsche Bank reported a 10% increase in net profit year-on-year, and its shares are up 21% this year.
French banks, meanwhile, were able to report only modest growth – due to their reliance on fixed-rate mortgages. France’s largest financial institution, BNP Paribas, reported a 2.2% drop in net profit and a 0.4% drop in revenue in the first quarter. Therefore, BNP is the biggest laggard among the big EU banks
According to analysts, the preservation of the confident growth of most European banks now depends on the outcome of the elections. The systemic stability of the banking sector can be questioned in the absence of a comprehensive solution in case of bankruptcy.