What will happen to the ruble in the new macroeconomic reality and should we expect a decrease in the volatility of the national currency? Will the Russian ruble be able to increase its share in international settlements, crowding out the leading currencies? And most importantly, what digital tools will replace fiat currencies in cross-border transactions? These and other questions were discussed by the participants of the conference: “The Russian ruble and the financial market in the new macroeconomic reality.” The event dedicated to the Day of the Russian Ruble was held in the Congress Center of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation on the initiative of the Moscow International Monetary Association and the Commonwealth of Financial Market Professionals.
Trust course
The most important task today remains to achieve the stability of the Russian national currency, which will be a guarantee of confidence in the ruble, including on the world market. The participants of the discussion agreed that it will not be easy to solve the problem in the near future. Over the past 10 years, the exchange rate of the national currency has fluctuated in the range from 32 to 112 rubles per dollar, and the ruble has periodically entered the rating of the most volatile currencies in the world. Garegin TasunyanPresident of the Association of Russian Banks.
The inflation rate is not the easiest situation. Its real decrease is doubtful, and this is despite the very high level of the key rate, Garegin Tasunyan notes, and Dzianis Solovyov says that the economy is entering an inflationary spiral.
“Number” from central banks
Equally serious challenges are being formed around the use of the Russian national currency for settlements on the world market.
Within the framework of the international settlement system based on SWIFT, it is difficult to expect a revival of the international activity of the ruble, notes Konstantin Karishchenko. A more realistic way is to move from a settlement system based on the correspondent accounts of commercial banks to a settlement system based on the correspondent accounts of central banks, he believes. Technically, this means using the digital currency of central banks.
In the new reality, the digital ruble can really become a sought-after device. As noted Mikhail Dialyagin, economist, deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, the tool can be used both for operations within the country, for example, to exclude non-targeted use of funds at the operational level, and in external calculations. In the latter case, it is an opportunity to work under sanctions restrictions. The technological base will allow mass use of the digital ruble for these purposes already in 2026.
Who will move the dollar?
There is indeed a demand for new tools for cross-border settlements. This is particularly evident from the gradual decline in the role of the dollar and the euro in international transactions. So, at the end of last year, the share of the dollar in international payment settlements via SWIFT was about 47%, excluding payments within the Eurozone, about 60%, for the euro, the figure was about 23% and 13%, respectively, statistics show. Artem Genkin, doctor of economic sciences, professor, president of ANA “Center for the Protection of Depositors and Investors”. However, the expert reminds, it does not take into account payments using other financial information exchange systems – Chinese CIPS, Indian SFMS, Russian SFFS, etc.
What is the proportion of cross-border payments that remain outside the SWIFT statistics? According to rough estimates, by January 2024 it was at least 1% and not more than 10%.
So, the traditional settlement leaders are slowly giving way to new players, not only the pound sterling or the Chinese yuan, but also other national currencies.
Of course, we are not talking about the complete decline of the dollar, but a number of factors are working to weaken the currency’s position. Thus, in June, Saudi Arabia refused to continue the security agreement with the US, which obliged the country to trade raw materials exclusively for dollars. And the strengthening of Bitcoin, which competes with the dollar, is supported by the decision of the US Federal Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) – this January it approved the first exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest directly in the main cryptocurrency.
Calculations: new format
Since all major banks, except for Gazprombank and Russelgasbank, were included in the SDN list, the main currency in international settlements of domestic companies with partners is the Chinese yuan, reminds Dzianis Solovyov. However, after the latest package of sanctions, it became more difficult for large currency exporters to “bring” foreign currency earnings into the country and sell them.
For the survival of foreign economic activity, tools are needed, which will be more attractive in terms of commission costs, he says Yaroslav Kabakov, director of strategy at Finam investment company. For example, they could be stablecoins backed by blocked assets of the Central Bank, which would also offset transaction costs. Kabakov also reminds of the risks of secondary sanctions, as well as the fact that the entire banking system of the country may be on the SDN list, and the transaction window will be drastically shortened.
At once, several alternative options for organizing cross-border payments denote and Igor Pilipenko, head of the Institute of Competitiveness and Integration. In addition to the use of digital currencies of central banks, it can be calculations in national currencies, as well as the introduction of currency clearing or mutual offsetting of claims and obligations without the use of gold and currency reserves.
Tens of hands later
Despite the changing global landscape, business was not ready to put cross-border operations on hold. Many options are being discussed today that would allow the country to participate in the system of international settlements. This is a digital ruble, and tokenized balances on bank accounts, as well as the single currency of the BRICS and SBP. These are good initiatives, which, however, will still be discussed for years, he notes Vladimir Kazinets, president of the Association of Corporate Treasurers. Companies also actively use payment agents to make cross-border payments, although the number of transactions that can be carried out with their participation is decreasing, and the amounts and commission awards are growing, the expert clarifies.
Small banks, which have not yet been affected by the sanctions, have remained on the market, which means that they provide payments for Russian companies. And of course, exporters and importers are increasingly actively trying to negotiate with each other about operations directly, building P2P payment chains.
If we talk about the future, the use of cryptocurrency opens up significant prospects for cross-border transactions. The decisive driver here will be distrust of classical currencies.