In 2023 and 2024, deposits of Russians in banks grew at the highest rate in the last 14 years, said Andrei Melnikov, Director General of the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA). The interlocutor of “Invest-Foresight”, deputy head of the media practice center of the Institute of Communication Management of the Higher School of Economics, Andrei Zhukau, shared his opinion on how long such a situation can last and what alternative contributions, ways of saving and increasing capital exist today.
– It is expected that by the end of 2024, the volume of citizens’ deposits in banks will reach 56 trillion rubles, adding 25% compared to the beginning of the year. Does this mean that the population has money or simply has nowhere else to invest?
– The sharp growth of deposits is connected with a number of reasons. First, we must give credit to our Central Bank. He has certainly succeeded in building a banking system that is trusted. You and I remember the 90s, when people kept money en masse, so-called, “under the mattress”, because today one or another bank is working, and tomorrow it is already bankrupt. And now citizens understand that if they take money to the bank, then this money is protected, it will be preserved, and at any moment it can be taken away. And considering that money is still the most liquid asset, it is not an apartment that you will not sell soon, and not dollars that you need to find where it is profitable to buy, and then find where it is profitable to exchange … Bank deposits and their stability – it is very important.
– The refinancing rate is also important, isn’t it?
– Yes, its size is also of great importance. During the year, it rose regularly, and the deposit rate is tied to it.
And finally, the increase in deposits is connected with the growth of the general financial culture. Citizens are becoming more and more aware of the fact that if you have money, it should not be lying around as dead weight, but should work for you. somehow!
– Especially since not all tools are available today!
– Yes, a number of them either lost their meaning or became unavailable. For example, five years ago advanced people were engaged in the fact that they put money in mutual investment funds that invested in foreign shares. there is no point in investing, because most people have stopped going to Europe, and we spend more money in rubles.
– What about the Russian stock market?
– Yes, perhaps there are more complex investment tools, such as the Russian stock market. But here it is necessary to understand that in the last two years considerable money has accumulated in the accounts of those citizens who have not seen serious money before. These are workers of the military-industrial complex, families of members of the SBA. For the most part, this category is not very familiar with sophisticated investment tools. So they take their savings to banks, opening accounts there.
– Another interesting news is that pensioners continue to actively use contributions. At the same time, the average amount of their contributions in October amounted to 507.2 thousand. rubles. The result of the psychological portrait of a pensioner, is it really “better to live”?
– Let’s be honest, pensioners have always collected so-called “coffin” money. In this case, there is the fact that they also trust the banking system and do not keep their savings “under the mattress”. Well, conditionally – my grandmother used to keep money in dollars, but now she began to understand, or it was explained to her, that there is no point in keeping dollars. Then she transferred it to rubles and deposited it at interest in a credit organization.
– Deposits the most optimal way to save money from inflation? Conservative investments in bonds are also often called a good option…
– There are probably bonds or shares of those companies that have shown phenomenal growth this year. As there are those who have settled down a lot. This is a rather complex device to understand – you need to monitor the market, anticipate.
And in general, I heard such a version that the stock market, stock and bond market is the share of young people under thirty. After all, a strong nervous system and a quick reaction. The older you get, the harder it is for you to do this. And the more calm, conservative investment tools you choose.
– Is there any danger for banks in accumulating such amount of funds. Are there no big problems with a lot of money?
– Banks also do not keep money in their accounts as dead weight, they work in them, they leave as financing of these or other projects. Therefore, I do not think that it is a big danger. economy attractive for investment, a “bubble” inflates, which then bursts.
It seems to me that this risk is not so great after all. First, because banks diversify their portfolios without putting all their eggs in one basket.
– How long, in your opinion, can the situation with high interest rates on deposits last?
– I think that the sharp increase in interest on deposits is at least coming to an end. First of all, because the high rate of refinancing remains a problem for the real sector. But, on the other hand, I don’t think it will decrease dramatically. Simply because rational financial behavior in the event of a sharp decline in interest rates will dictate to people: take the money and put it in something another